Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a1f0ae653526065823c565c6b3b1edebe8cfadf13fb0b9e86568068bbc83966
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 42c | 291.68$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 4c | 259.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 28c | 244.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 199.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…76cebacked No | 72c | 192.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 77c | 130.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 49c | 129.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 122.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 119.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 39c | 117.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 20c | 97.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 94.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 71c | 93.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 89.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 41c | 77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 73c | 68.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 65.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 38c | 60.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 37c | 58.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 40c | 54.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 49c | 53.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 68c | 52.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 53c | 52.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 71c | 52.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 67c | 51.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 44c | 50.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 27c | 49.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 48.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 46.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 69c | 46.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 44.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 44.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 42.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 39c | 42.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 41.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 47c | 41.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 49c | 37.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 36.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 54c | 35.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 32.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 32.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 26.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 25.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 73c | 23.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 21.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 75c | 21.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…ab59backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 76c | 17.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 33°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or below on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.