Euroleague · resolved market
CB Breogan Lugo vs. Real Madrid
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a5a636b020aef1fa409e928a8f3465f8fc6ab9defff3da1ccda701f3cf3317c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madridof CB Breogan Lugo, Real Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9edc…b088backed CB Breogan Lugo | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.97 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked CB Breogan Lugo | 16c | 1,317$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.32 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked CB Breogan Lugo | 16c | 317.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…de05backed CB Breogan Lugo | 10c | 135$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed CB Breogan Lugo | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…497dbacked CB Breogan Lugo | 29c | 107.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked CB Breogan Lugo | 20c | 53.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Real Madrid | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed CB Breogan Lugo | 23c | 51.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.