Mls · resolved market
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a66d938b73ce21a7684401b56bd0b9e433f947c01aa3f9ccc195f806d71130b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,356 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,454$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.06 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 20c | 1,709$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.74 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…21e3backed Yes | 20c | 215.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7035…c8eabacked No | 80c | 215.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 80c | 198.45$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 181.05$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 80c | 157$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 18c | 147.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Yes | 20c | 122.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 19c | 100.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 20c | 98.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 79c | 76.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…e910backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked No | 78c | 37.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Minnesota United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.