Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a7fe28eeeffde376012c96f6aa0abc2f4ceda0869733b7c73762a20c9acda24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 4c | 28,229$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 0c | 18,115$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5de8backed Yes | 5c | 6,845$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…717fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,530$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb745…b8f1backed Yes | 3c | 4,456$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ed…0aedbacked Yes | 1c | 4,146$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0db…62e5backed Yes | 3c | 2,852$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…271dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,842$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…cf64backed Yes | 1c | 2,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c07…8c2bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,644$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 2c | 1,432$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,235$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…d308backed Yes | 5c | 1,107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…37d8backed Yes | 3c | 940.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 926.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 822.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 4c | 663.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 4c | 513.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac5…2bbabacked Yes | 5c | 401.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…501cbacked Yes | 5c | 400.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…533fbacked Yes | 6c | 356.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7359…dac9backed Yes | 4c | 328$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 291.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…c51dbacked Yes | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…1f14backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76b9…c5dabacked Yes | 10c | 150.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3a…9226backed Yes | 12c | 140.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…2429backed Yes | 13c | 82.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.