UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a83431df62202a48915222f149bb425764fa03993a999ac5f2bca99d2b56dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 56c | 899.98$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.99 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 43c | 889.01$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.02 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 44c | 482.98$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.51 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 59c | 140.19$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…f649backed Yes | 57c | 87.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…5a4dbacked No | 61c | 82.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…89f3backed No | 43c | 74.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 39c | 55.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 43c | 51.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d83…8673backed Yes | 59c | 42.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca2…c234backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 50c | 33.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738c…e913backed No | 50c | 33.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 57c | 32.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…1c8cbacked Yes | 59c | 28.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)Pat Sabatini won
- Will Pat Sabatini win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.