Movies · resolved market
Will "Song Sung Blue" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aa30ee31e6bec4eade7100989982f88b625f3c4b0f363e521f97d3ec1252619
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 75c | 799.89$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…5284backed Yes | 6c | 766.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 25c | 687.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.38 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 3c | 671.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 25c | 541.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.07 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 392.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 4c | 355.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 12c | 340.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 41c | 176$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 104.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ca…e7adbacked Yes | 41c | 98.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 68c | 66.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 44.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Song Sung Blue" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m?this page
- Will "Song Sung Blue" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?Yes won
- Will "Song Sung Blue" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?No won
- Will "Song Sung Blue" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?No won
- Will "Song Sung Blue" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.