Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae3147d23ea549c009752c38b56c26c06710bcb9dc7297a6a6875c481ff9f7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 28c | 579.97$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 5c | 425.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 421.52$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 362.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 356.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 355.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 338.02$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 10c | 303.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 266.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe89b…a0f0backed No | 74c | 262.64$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 25c | 239.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 204.31$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.58 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 200.45$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 154.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 151.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 149.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes | 16c | 130.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 63c | 121$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x406f…327dbacked Yes | 50c | 110.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 69c | 98.42$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes | 35c | 96.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 76c | 95.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 11c | 90.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 87.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 36c | 83.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 23c | 82.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…ae0cbacked Yes | 24c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 33c | 76.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 37c | 75.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed No | 68c | 71.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 69.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 67.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 71c | 66.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 59.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 79c | 49.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 29c | 44.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 35c | 43.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…0247backed No | 70c | 41.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 37c | 38.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 37c | 38.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 36.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 65c | 32.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c7…4399backed No | 76c | 30.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 69c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4164…12bcbacked No | 44c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 24.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 52c | 22.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 53c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 67c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.