Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71b5869c26c5c329b3cd8afbe848177718ab4fa13be4c0e1cc9ee108f49d7ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 11c | 615.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 438.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 427.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 77c | 380.48$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.37 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 20c | 358.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…d860backed Yes | 3c | 357.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 265.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 249.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 23c | 153.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 73c | 139.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 15c | 135.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 123.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 113.77$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 28c | 110.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 29c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 13c | 99.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 98.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes | 21c | 96.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 94.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 29c | 92.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 21c | 74.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 25c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 69.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 57c | 63.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 56.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 54.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…c265backed Yes | 27c | 51.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 32c | 49.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 22c | 47.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 22c | 46.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 41.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 39.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…9c24backed Yes | 29c | 37.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 76c | 36.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 33c | 35.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked No | 73c | 33.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 73c | 32.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 73c | 24.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 77c | 21.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 72c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 17.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…3f99backed No | 76c | 16.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…40e2backed No | 72c | 16.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.