Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Valinor vs L1ga Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aecde6995a8ae7f7fc2f4ac0a2d097db0ea1197b9e3382367c88d9131e04f73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof Valinor, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabcf…4cfcbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 350$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…ded5backed Valinor | 34c | 350$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed L1ga Team | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Valinor | 24c | 183.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…583abacked Valinor | 25c | 182.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334c…f072backed L1ga Team | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e8…b02bbacked Valinor | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…7618backed Valinor | 19c | 103.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Valinor | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Valinor | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Valinor | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed L1ga Team | 67c | 78.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Valinor | 26c | 63.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed L1ga Team | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d2…3c94backed L1ga Team | 74c | 33.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked L1ga Team | 69c | 28.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c0…4a9cbacked L1ga Team | 75c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked L1ga Team | 75c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcb…5ee0backed L1ga Team | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…8ff8backed L1ga Team | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…23f3backed L1ga Team | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Valinor vs L1ga Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Valinor vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: Valinor vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.