Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af2b3523788348cb52794bc4689e377c42877fc9f96a03164aac2dcb7144434
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 4,131$2,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Over | 52c | 1,052$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.97 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 910.32$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.95 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 52c | 453.33$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.73 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 430.73$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.05 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…ee33backed Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.47per pick | 39cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 52c | 214.06$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.31 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 72c | 181$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.63 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Over | 38c | 114.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…4e1ebacked Under | 64c | 110.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 49c | 90.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…2798backed Over | 46c | 87.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 68.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Over | 62c | 54.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Over | 46c | 43.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…2f76backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Over | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2039…ec43backed Under | 54c | 26.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 55c | 18.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. FC St. Pauli: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-0.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.