La Liga · resolved market
Alaves vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b23b68e5708821e8bc98e45e10dac1443b387d48aef95628a0de7f8b63d895d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Over | 41c | 2,709$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 1,988$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.81 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 59c | 1,638$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.82 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Over | 41c | 1,060$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Over | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…8e95backed Under | 61c | 237.14$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…84a2backed Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 41c | 108.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 60c | 100.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 32c | 98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…f4dabacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 41c | 66.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 40c | 62.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Alaves vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 2.5this page
- Alaves vs. Celta Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Alaves vs. Celta Vigo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Alaves (-1.5)Celta Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.