Commodities · resolved market
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b3a99ed21aad207327b34b39c388747dd5e0c4dc0307e8c60913df7769b4946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 7c | 1,628$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 69c | 214.03$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a97…0a4dbacked Up | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Up | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 26c | 62.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Down | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Up | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Up | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Down | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Down | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…ff8cbacked Down | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 76cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.