Mls · resolved market
Chicago Fire FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b85b91f655e97aa30d456ecbe254f7de740c26d5afe624be1fb42e0db4a3701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 1,747$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.76 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 41c | 1,549$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.06 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 40c | 549.02$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.6 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 368.9$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.03 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 305$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 59c | 287$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 63c | 286.33$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 236.45$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Under | 43c | 233.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 50c | 201.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 40c | 182.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 64c | 180$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 59c | 124$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 51.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 64c | 48.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…0633backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 38.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Over | 61c | 16.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Fire FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5this page
- Chicago Fire FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chicago Fire FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.