Asian League · resolved market
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd4012a233c156fbad8b618748686fb6e23314e522c5a98720181ef4f681cc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f8d…a19bbacked Under | 57c | 1,758$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 24c | 1,249$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.24 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 661.93$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.74 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 43c | 255.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.01 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 254.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Over | 43c | 252.54$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.85 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 78c | 250$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 67c | 205.05$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.59 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 7c | 202.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ac…c267backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked Over | 51c | 195.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…6813backed Under | 59c | 184.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Over | 43c | 113.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +5.8wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 60c | 111.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 67c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…4095backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 60c | 81.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 375 | 52%195 W · 180 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…cccabacked Over | 20c | 55.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 36c | 55.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…f7a9backed Under | 71c | 52.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under | 77c | 43.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Under | 54c | 40.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 30.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 706 | 52.3%369 W · 337 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…3d48backed Over | 47c | 29.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 79c | 26.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd46…2a7dbacked Under | 57c | 19.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Under | 77c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 16.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 4.5this page
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kawasaki Frontale vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.