Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: YBN Team vs Daxak Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bee2bd899a8a43f868be0651861c374d45f7073358255897770bcf41926ab7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Daxak Teamof YBN Team, Daxak Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Daxak Team | 61c | 1,159$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.45 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed YBN Team | 42c | 756.8$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.42 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked YBN Team | 30c | 670$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Daxak Team | 49c | 456.75$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.62 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked YBN Team | 62c | 377.52$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.94 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed YBN Team | 49c | 356.15$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Daxak Team | 43c | 251.75$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Daxak Team | 64c | 234.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.42 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked YBN Team | 50c | 186$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…b83cbacked YBN Team | 73c | 185.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked YBN Team | 43c | 142.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Daxak Team | 38c | 121.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked YBN Team | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed YBN Team | 65c | 61.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed YBN Team | 59c | 57.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…d08abacked YBN Team | 40c | 50.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…44a0backed Daxak Team | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Daxak Team | 53c | 45.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed YBN Team | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…514fbacked YBN Team | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed YBN Team | 37c | 36.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed YBN Team | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…857abacked Daxak Team | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: YBN Team vs Daxak Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: YBN Team vs Daxak Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group BDaxak Team won
- Dota 2: YBN Team vs Daxak Team - Game 1 WinnerDaxak Team won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.