MLB · resolved market
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c180220fb1b7b3d49be42d70ed6b41a0b845e3d94ef6e01b455f2b8b384eb92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Diamondbacks, Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Phillies | 59c | 20,353$11,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,378.23 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Diamondbacks | 41c | 13,162$5,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,396.31 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Diamondbacks | 42c | 6,987$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.05 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Phillies | 58c | 4,173$2,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.16 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Diamondbacks | 43c | 3,653$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.16 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 2,353$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.23 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Phillies | 58c | 2,222$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Diamondbacks | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Phillies | 65c | 1,895$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.85 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Diamondbacks | 43c | 1,395$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks | 28c | 1,254$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.37 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,240$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.4 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Phillies | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Phillies | 58c | 999.99$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 999.99$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks | 35c | 850.18$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Phillies | 70c | 776$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Diamondbacks | 42c | 589.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Diamondbacks | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Phillies | 60c | 478.68$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.48 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 59c | 339.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.25 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Phillies | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…8b38backed Diamondbacks | 41c | 273$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Diamondbacks | 41c | 188.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies | 58c | 171.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Diamondbacks | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Diamondbacks | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks | 32c | 157.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Phillies | 58c | 142.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Phillies | 60c | 117.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Phillies | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Diamondbacks | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Phillies | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Diamondbacks | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Diamondbacks | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Phillies | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Phillies | 59c | 38.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Phillies | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Phillies | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Phillies | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.