Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c1f97f62d9c4815956f36cd77aa97855c01b5bf5a038cea05b7b904bfb42e9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 67c | 539.42$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.67 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 320.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 24c | 284.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 68c | 258.97$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 252.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 200.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 193.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 131.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 127.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 37c | 120.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 116.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 92.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 89.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 79.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 33c | 78.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 76.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 73c | 70.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 66.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 33c | 60.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 57.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 54.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 50.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 30c | 46.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked No | 64c | 44.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 41.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 67c | 34.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 32.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 67c | 31.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 76c | 31.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 26.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3754backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 64c | 15.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 15.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.