Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbc0bfb096d4b68c73a83fedb2a2d51c104892ccb1524df3f33541acf1f5a9c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 63c | 385.01$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 46c | 359.44$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.44 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 31c | 309.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 27c | 285.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 63c | 282.87$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 282.1$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 56c | 268.51$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.51 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 203.58$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 64c | 146.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 143.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 125$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 15c | 121.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 118.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 78c | 114.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 101.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 50c | 100.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.18 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 92.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 89.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 89.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 44c | 80.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 80.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 34c | 79.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 76.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 71.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 67.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 75c | 66.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 42c | 65.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 53c | 65.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 63.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 38c | 59.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 59.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 49c | 54.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 49.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 48.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 43.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 40.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 42c | 38.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 39c | 36.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed No | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 32.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 69c | 30.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 53c | 30.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 55c | 26.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked No | 55c | 24.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 24.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ada…05b8backed No | 62c | 23.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 51c | 23.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 75c | 19.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.