College Football · resolved market
Spread: Boise State (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c68622c2b25d9cb16d93b0ca39a91cf03d5cc12f7a14331838e69cce905678d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof Boise State, UNLV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c81…e258backed UNLV | 52c | 5,711$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Boise State | 48c | 4,700$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed UNLV | 54c | 2,790$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Boise State | 46c | 1,342$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.72 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Boise State | 47c | 1,226$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.91 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Boise State | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Boise State | 48c | 227$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed UNLV | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Boise State | 46c | 183.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Boise State | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Boise State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eda…acf6backed UNLV | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boise State (-13.5)this page
- O/U 63.5Over won
- Spread: Boise State (-11.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-12.5)Boise State won
- UNLV vs. Boise StateBoise State won
- UNLV vs. Boise State: O/U 60.5Over won
- UNLV vs. Boise State: O/U 62.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.