College Football · resolved market
Spread: Boise State (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18458c5921c342df9bc747a3508a338ccf016e52676d5b4bb0b84cdf791bbf23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof Boise State, UNLV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked UNLV | 49c | 47,222$23,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,043.39 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Boise State | 51c | 28,963$14,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,192 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Boise State | 51c | 18,118$9,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,817.64 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Boise State | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UNLV | 48c | 1,426$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.31 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…d026backed Boise State | 51c | 1,373$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed UNLV | 49c | 1,100$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked UNLV | 48c | 1,050$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed UNLV | 48c | 765.56$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.47 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed UNLV | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UNLV | 48c | 483$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.84 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Boise State | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed UNLV | 48c | 395.83$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Boise State | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…81e4backed Boise State | 53c | 188.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Boise State | 37c | 188.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.74 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed UNLV | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed UNLV | 50c | 78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Boise State | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Boise State | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…534cbacked Boise State | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1c…caf3backed UNLV | 49c | 30.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Boise State | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boise State (-12.5)this page
- O/U 63.5Over won
- Spread: Boise State (-11.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-13.5)Boise State won
- UNLV vs. Boise StateBoise State won
- UNLV vs. Boise State: O/U 60.5Over won
- UNLV vs. Boise State: O/U 62.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.