College Football · resolved market
UNLV vs. Boise State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d43abb6b70d953ea166ba4e078de6d00f1dde0a394a061eea7659c40094b95a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boise Stateof UNLV, Boise State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $348,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $358,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $348,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed UNLV | 20c | 275,256$55,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,925.45 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Boise State | 80c | 53,914$43,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,822.25 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Boise State | 79c | 37,747$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,746.91 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Boise State | 80c | 28,733$22,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,746.54 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Boise State | 80c | 18,000$14,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed UNLV | 15c | 14,911$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,289.75 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Boise State | 80c | 12,590$10,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,517.98 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Boise State | 79c | 11,500$9,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Boise State | 79c | 7,500$5,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked UNLV | 12c | 6,066$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.58 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Boise State | 79c | 5,000$3,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed UNLV | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Boise State | 80c | 4,128$3,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.6 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52f…e6b0backed Boise State | 80c | 3,800$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UNLV | 15c | 3,174$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.56 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UNLV | 19c | 2,963$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.38 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked UNLV | 21c | 2,381$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Boise State | 77c | 2,379$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.23 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked UNLV | 12c | 2,314$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.53 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed UNLV | 19c | 2,213$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.49 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Boise State | 80c | 1,928$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.65 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Boise State | 79c | 1,899$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.73 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Boise State | 80c | 1,485$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked UNLV | 19c | 1,400$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed UNLV | 18c | 1,004$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.66 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed UNLV | 10c | 700$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Boise State | 80c | 630$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Boise State | 79c | 451$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.41 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed UNLV | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked UNLV | 14c | 200.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed UNLV | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 22.7%25 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed UNLV | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…b14abacked UNLV | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed UNLV | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked UNLV | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…8eacbacked UNLV | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Boise State | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed UNLV | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed UNLV | 22c | 68.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked Boise State | 80c | 68.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Boise State | 80c | 63.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Boise State | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…9282backed UNLV | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1fe8backed Boise State | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…a5dbbacked UNLV | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Boise State | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Boise State | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UNLV vs. Boise Statethis page
- O/U 63.5Over won
- Spread: Boise State (-11.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-12.5)Boise State won
- Spread: Boise State (-13.5)Boise State won
- UNLV vs. Boise State: O/U 60.5Over won
- UNLV vs. Boise State: O/U 62.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.