Weather · resolved market
Ebola emergency by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c8de9b5699963744b5bc15b9cc6e1f79ee3a06217b137fc0145d87510350b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 61c | 1,435$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…e66ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,353$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +351%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 1,200$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 79c | 1,066$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.21 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked Yes | 6c | 1,047$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 3c | 478.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaad…69ccbacked Yes | 51c | 281.43$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…9cd5backed Yes | 10c | 272.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 80c | 190$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2e…d3cabacked No | 67c | 98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…bb39backed Yes | 16c | 74.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +507.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 31c | 49.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 78c | 16.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.