NFL · resolved market
Will the Bills and Jaguars combine for 46 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cb3fa14a2523e3f09d88031cdff121c4d747234383937d9f4d5abe77dc8f405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Under | 48c | 12,873$6,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,121.88 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Under | 48c | 9,752$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…e6aebacked Over | 55c | 9,097$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,096.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 52c | 5,818$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.69 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Over | 52c | 4,992$2,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,371.02 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Over | 52c | 2,008$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Over | 55c | 949.98$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.99 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 46c | 410.04$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.62 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Under | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4cf3backed Over | 53c | 216.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9864…6c50backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Over | 51c | 206.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…772fbacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…4e32backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Under | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Over | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…2c30backed Over | 53c | 51.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…45e0backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…2035backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9176…6181backed Under | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…db5fbacked Under | 62c | 16.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bills and Jaguars combine for 46 or more points?this page
- Will the Bills beat the Jaguars by 6 or more points?Bills won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.