MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cbd7fd0186877e7c4f831cd62f3c4daa4c75579560a891a534130a85d5da9af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 12,056$8,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 5,087$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.17 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 25c | 4,448$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 49c | 895.45$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.06 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked San Francisco Giants | 27c | 667.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.35 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 632$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.09 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 406.81$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 389.14$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 255.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked San Diego Padres | 72c | 199.47$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked San Francisco Giants | 42c | 120.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…556fbacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked San Francisco Giants | 28c | 113.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 80c | 90$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Francisco Giants | 25c | 88.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 87.4$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 76.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed San Diego Padres | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed San Francisco Giants | 44c | 49.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked San Francisco Giants | 69c | 34.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 20.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked San Francisco Giants | 67c | 15.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…bcfdbacked San Diego Padres | 75c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 14.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.