Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cc0260fe5c525205f94e478bac281f84a9143dbe3d73c6b0c0c3acc6795674a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 43c | 694.37$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.28 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 375.72$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 284.81$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 80c | 245.47$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 207.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 196.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.02 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…f304backed Yes | 44c | 156.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 26c | 122.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 115.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 104.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes | 46c | 97.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 43c | 92.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 92.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 89.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 38c | 85.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5121…a989backed No | 79c | 82.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 75.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 57.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 29c | 53.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 35c | 52.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 44c | 46.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 69c | 42.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 40.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 48c | 39.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 67c | 38.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 43c | 37.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 59c | 32.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 78c | 31.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 66c | 25.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…1b93backed Yes | 71c | 24.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…b6bebacked No | 68c | 21.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…e145backed No | 65c | 19.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 19.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 75c | 16.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or higher on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.