Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0ae5fd22fbe023335f87ce40b5932d9b3e811c465842d69ffebd83c13cefa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 2c | 914.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…7e47backed Yes | 2c | 914.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…114dbacked Yes | 2c | 914.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3981…de4dbacked Yes | 2c | 914.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 45c | 901.06$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.34 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 73c | 681.32$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.73 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 309.68$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 264.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes | 67c | 216.65$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 42c | 203.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 52c | 195.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Yes | 63c | 195.1$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked No | 54c | 177.61$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.24 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…c987backed Yes | 58c | 164.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 144.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 115.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 54c | 98.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 56c | 84.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 59c | 66.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 65.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 62.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 59c | 61.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 32c | 57.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 41c | 45.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c3…5928backed Yes | 56c | 45.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bcf9backed No | 44c | 43.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 48c | 39.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 27c | 37.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 36.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 48c | 35.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…6012backed No | 55c | 34.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86b…96b8backed Yes | 63c | 31.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 28.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 23.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 74c | 22.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 62c | 22.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 53c | 21.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 51c | 20.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d1f3backed Yes | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 61c | 17.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C or higher on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.