South American Leagues · resolved market
Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d01861f602a2268067fdcdcc00f9b0c245864bf3211dd1a1000fe6b21698fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Over | 3c | 1,064$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 2c | 988.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 801.54$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.66 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 49c | 322.39$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 224.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.45 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46b…a180backed Over | 75c | 210.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…691fbacked Under | 25c | 210.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 204.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 204.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…6178backed Under | 27c | 201.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…329bbacked Over | 73c | 201.52$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 19c | 190$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 179.98$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…7c6ebacked Under | 25c | 139.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1129…9d35backed Over | 75c | 139.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 19c | 125$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 50c | 108.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 25c | 99.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 80c | 97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 50c | 86.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 50c | 85.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 34c | 58.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…d6edbacked Over | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…bb75backed Under | 51c | 46.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Over | 31c | 36.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 33c | 30.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 57c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…c99dbacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Over | 49c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Querétaro FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Querétaro FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)Querétaro FC won
- Spread: Querétaro FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Querétaro FC (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.