Olympics · resolved market
Katie Ledecky wins 1 or fewer gold medals?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d5bd1040aeb15b5d2fda9b208127883e682b2da464491a1d7ab1ea92d40f826
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd86d…9ce1backed No | 76c | 644.37$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 18c | 613.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.55 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb33b…092fbacked Yes | 20c | 550$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 80c | 500$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 46c | 399.97$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.99 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62c3…b47abacked No | 59c | 350.67$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ab…2f22backed No | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 25c | 227.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaf…0f1dbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…f250backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 67c | 91.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Yes | 17c | 66.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Katie Ledecky wins 1 or fewer gold medals?this page
- Katie Ledecky wins 2 gold medals?Yes won
- Katie Ledecky wins 3 gold medals?No won
- Katie Ledecky wins 4+ gold medals?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.