Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun banned in the US before 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dfdcea26676118a7494660e2a8f122b7e2cad026c7a1785c86a9c3924e4358d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f46…bfb3backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 6c | 1,503$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5971…bec3backed Yes | 15c | 1,376$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 1,303$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,227$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 3c | 1,111$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 28cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa72…1285backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…6974backed Yes | 5c | 856.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 7c | 496.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 5c | 404.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…14f2backed Yes | 11c | 399.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fd6dbacked Yes | 3c | 379.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…f7babacked Yes | 6c | 360.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25fe…ae28backed Yes | 4c | 350.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 334.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 8c | 292.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e5…a49cbacked Yes | 6c | 176.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.