Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Sporting CP (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e4b65d44c4f5a18a16d0d1584aadd3568603f7105d545ec8cd04e461732185e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sporting CPof Sporting CP, Olympique de Marseille
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Olympique de Marseille | 56c | 2,272$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.72 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sporting CP | 44c | 1,974$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.21 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Sporting CP | 43c | 800.77$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.44 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sporting CP | 41c | 682.02$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.52 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15df…9465backed Olympique de Marseille | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Olympique de Marseille | 58c | 483$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.86 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…32a7backed Olympique de Marseille | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Sporting CP | 44c | 110.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…a167backed Olympique de Marseille | 56c | 83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31bf…a612backed Olympique de Marseille | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 74.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Sporting CP | 45c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 202 | 41.6%84 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Olympique de Marseille | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1975backed Olympique de Marseille | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Sporting CP | 42c | 25.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…f5aebacked Olympique de Marseille | 57c | 19.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sporting CP (-0.5)this page
- Sporting CP vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.