Champions League · resolved market
Sporting CP vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x041841e564fd22d8251e00aa9ce54e3a40b58c8b835da8702f561eff37d79d16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 38c | 12,720$4,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,788.73 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 62c | 10,000$6,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.44 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…d32abacked Over | 63c | 4,743$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,743.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 2,400$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.86 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 38c | 1,625$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.14 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 60c | 1,055$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 42c | 822.21$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.33 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 58c | 680.43$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.78 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Under | 37c | 541$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.17 | 240 | 47.1%113 W · 127 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 61c | 513$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.93 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…ae28backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 39c | 417.85$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -9.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -60%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Under | 39c | 399.96$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 59c | 337.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.86 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 62c | 322.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Over | 56c | 235.38$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff36backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x924e…3fe8backed Over | 62c | 161.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…917ebacked Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Under | 40c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Over | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Under | 39c | 90.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Over | 59c | 58.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 62c | 56.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…7910backed Over | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over | 62c | 38.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Over | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…5407backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…0e2fbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…db97backed Over | 62c | 29.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…bcffbacked Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6adb…fac7backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1d…641dbacked Over | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sporting CP vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Sporting CP (-0.5)Sporting CP won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.