Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7861f1b430990e06c3af9e8ffe315ee30da8be0c608567b29bdd3dc01f602a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 868.82$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 6c | 457.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 4c | 364.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 320.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 28c | 310.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 275.88$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 18c | 249.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 76c | 226.6$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 73c | 120.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 73c | 119.64$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 111.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 26c | 84.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 54.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 26c | 45.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 24c | 43.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 24c | 42.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 41.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked No | 73c | 41.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 31.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 74c | 21.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 73c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.