Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed831edcf9ffe27083b87069013a90819db71797987ca840326eca5ebc24457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro | 46c | 3,197$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.29 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 1,410$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.4 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 548.91$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.68 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Yellow Submarine | 59c | 505.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.65 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1b12backed Yellow Submarine | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Virtus.pro | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Yellow Submarine | 51c | 390.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 228.33$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed Virtus.pro | 64c | 187.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Virtus.pro | 51c | 148.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f3…6613backed Yellow Submarine | 49c | 148.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 129.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…7584backed Yellow Submarine | 47c | 119.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 113.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Yellow Submarine | 48c | 103.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…ad1dbacked Virtus.pro | 59c | 54.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…5bf4backed Yellow Submarine | 69c | 51.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…a5f1backed Yellow Submarine | 69c | 48.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 47.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Virtus.pro | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Virtus.pro | 44c | 35.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1a07backed Virtus.pro | 48c | 31.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Yellow Submarine | 67c | 24.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yellow Submarine | 50c | 21.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.