MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eeb4f92e87adcbf426e4998d4f638b2fb40e123e88e9b6c8ee07540475e6c5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 4,313$2,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,587.15 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Houston Astros | 13c | 2,864$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,492.08 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 2,750$1,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.82 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 2,682$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.2 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 2,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fca…9d33backed Houston Astros | 40c | 2,158$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 581.67$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.62 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc674…1176backed Houston Astros | 40c | 212$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Houston Astros | 37c | 151.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros | 39c | 102$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Houston Astros | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf46d…aae7backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 79.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 65.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…c072backed Houston Astros | 41c | 61.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Houston Astros | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Houston Astros | 37c | 47.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 43.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2d…cb6bbacked Houston Astros | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d65…c693backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 39.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Houston Astros | 34c | 33.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…747cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -8.1wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 29.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 20.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 20.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 20.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b21…05ecbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.