MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac52895bf4f3426ca15fa457b66cbafb11ef344a0ba9288adc2b82fcf9992c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 412.88$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.18 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 410.02$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 52c | 410$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 318.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 273.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 46c | 210.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 35c | 162.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…5623backed Under | 67c | 144.22$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 50c | 117.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46d…aae7backed Under | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Over | 55c | 90.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 44c | 84.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 83.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 50c | 77.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x295a…5adabacked Over | 40c | 74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2d…cb6bbacked Over | 43c | 40.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 38.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ce…8945backed Over | 55c | 32.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Over | 56c | 27.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 52c | 26.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 24.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 56c | 23.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked Over | 56c | 18.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.