Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.60 February 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0b9c51e2dac3830a5d442a5092c240322f8499318fda4fd4111ddc60c5f290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed Yes | 2c | 14,000$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 6c | 1,909$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.04 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 3c | 864.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 530$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…f46fbacked Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…4618backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2624…b720backed Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.60 February 16-22?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 February 16-22?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.70 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.90 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 February 16-22?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 February 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.