Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f0ef81d3809c43b842927c8727502f82a943f02480d7b80869b8e460955f05d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshall Thundering Herdof Marshall Thundering Herd, Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 48c | 2,491$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.94 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 54c | 2,049$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.96 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 48c | 1,560$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.25 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 589.64$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.63 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 518.64$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.11 | 1,003 | 55.3%555 W · 448 L | +46.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 56c | 487.13$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.49 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…70c5backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 55c | 177.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x460e…d3ebbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 30c | 157.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 32c | 140.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 13c | 119.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 316 | 46.8%148 W · 168 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 36c | 108.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 107.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 27c | 85.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 60c | 83.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 32c | 73.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 36c | 70.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 47c | 65.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 30c | 63.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…1d51backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 76c | 61.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 43c | 59.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 43c | 46.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…9111backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 44c | 44.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 40c | 43.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…edaabacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 59c | 37.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 41c | 36.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 40c | 28.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 42c | 24.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 64c | 18.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 60c | 18.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.