Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Droguet vs Carabelli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f50019673d1353342ba6819cfe2b2724908d6409235fdd111ff56969dab7edc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Droguetof Droguet, Carabelli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5843…e8e1backed Carabelli | 57c | 11,179$6,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,382.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Droguet | 42c | 7,849$3,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,553.06 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Droguet | 47c | 1,590$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.78 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…ddd3backed Carabelli | 53c | 937.72$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Droguet | 46c | 871$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.26 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Droguet | 47c | 674.84$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.96 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Droguet | 43c | 524.03$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.54 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Droguet | 46c | 403.77$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.04 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Carabelli | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Droguet | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Droguet | 46c | 190$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…2081backed Carabelli | 54c | 186.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…4253backed Carabelli | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Droguet | 42c | 128$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Droguet | 50c | 106$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Droguet | 62c | 95.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Droguet | 72c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Droguet vs Carabellithis page
- Droguet vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Droguet vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Droguet vs. Carabelli: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Estoril Open: Titouan Droguet vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliTitouan Droguet won
- Set 2 Winner: Droguet vs CarabelliCarabelli won
- Set Handicap: Carabelli (-1.5) vs Droguet (+1.5)Droguet won
- Titouan Droguet vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.