Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Matteo Berrettini vs Giulio Zeppieri
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f6104c94a808fec075a4512ec2e898c9c1a244ff3689e0a7afeb8c198dcb3e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Berrettini, Zeppieri
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Zeppieri | 32c | 3,116$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.47 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Berrettini | 67c | 2,627$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.36 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Berrettini | 69c | 2,111$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.65 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Zeppieri | 28c | 1,520$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.63 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Zeppieri | 38c | 1,400$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Berrettini | 62c | 1,095$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.1 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Zeppieri | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Berrettini | 67c | 814.71$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.71 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Berrettini | 64c | 774$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.64 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Zeppieri | 29c | 643.75$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.96 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Zeppieri | 34c | 558.71$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.17 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Berrettini | 79c | 427.02$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Berrettini | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Zeppieri | 43c | 230.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Berrettini | 61c | 226.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Berrettini | 63c | 158.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Zeppieri | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Berrettini | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Zeppieri | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Zeppieri | 27c | 92.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Berrettini | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Zeppieri | 38c | 70.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Berrettini | 79c | 63.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…fd01backed Berrettini | 68c | 55.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…19dabacked Berrettini | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.