Other European Leagues · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f962e53f58041b2d0f1e374a1fb7c26ee75dce89999de1c6e86c8fff63c4662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 47c | 9,985$4,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,692.95 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Under | 57c | 7,300$4,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,139 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 2,913$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.97 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 1,479$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.74 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 29c | 621.63$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 67c | 553.15$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 552.56$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.33 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Over | 28c | 523.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.01 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 47c | 426.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 34c | 379.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.48 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 361$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 28c | 340$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 249.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.29 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 202.59$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…fc21backed Under | 56c | 155$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 59c | 142$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 46c | 140$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 47c | 95.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.7wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 56c | 88.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 55.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 52.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 47c | 44.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 43c | 40.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…97f1backed Over | 47c | 32.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 25.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 60c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Under | 78c | 15.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 3.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Twente '65: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)FC Twente '65 won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)FC Twente '65 won
- Spread: FC Twente '65 (-2.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.