South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-03-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fa4494128e9b8e0643c58b22320de90185fa234eefc715a93472e554b140026
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,468 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 11c | 4,887$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.2 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 8c | 4,321$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.08 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed Yes | 1c | 2,122$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…c3e9backed Yes | 1c | 923.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 3c | 663.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…7432backed Yes | 10c | 653.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Yes | 12c | 572$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 538.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 15c | 505.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.33 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 11c | 383$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 12c | 363$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce9…4e6abacked Yes | 15c | 264.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Yes | 10c | 215.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…54d2backed Yes | 13c | 148.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…1444backed Yes | 12c | 145.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-03-12?this page
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.