NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fcacc3111226d156a11a35f13d46bf61c8dc6b22d0e013941e9172b43230440
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x151e…58debacked Under | 28c | 1,726$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 49c | 1,283$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.02 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 72c | 1,033$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.79 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 380.52$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 41c | 353$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.44 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 252$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 72c | 194.59$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 33c | 193$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Under | 78c | 168$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 94.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 72c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 76c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 76c | 27.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffbb…0ad8backed Over | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa018…a27abacked Over | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5this page
- Jets vs. Blue JacketsJets won
- Jets vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Jets vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Jets vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.