Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe736371a1567070da39c057a5c5d762d9e5f15517046779c5349cbaa23248d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baezof Lehecka, Baez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,104 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Baez | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 576 | 49.5%285 W · 291 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lehecka | 20c | 4,950$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.26 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lehecka | 0c | 4,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Baez | 58c | 345.34$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.34 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…0d73backed Lehecka | 20c | 280.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lehecka | 42c | 243.06$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Lehecka | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…a473backed Baez | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Lehecka | 42c | 185.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Lehecka | 44c | 146.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Baez | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 217 | 58.1%126 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…073ebacked Baez | 58c | 84.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Baez | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…a418backed Baez | 57c | 79.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Baez | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Lehecka | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Lehecka | 43c | 56.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Lehecka | 24c | 45.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Lehecka | 42c | 27.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Baez (+1.5)this page
- BNP Paribas Open: Sebastian Baez vs Jiri LeheckaSebastian Baez won
- Set 1 Winner: Baez vs LeheckaBaez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.