NHL · resolved market
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3027a651216087470cfd5e9a770932cc51b58744036f8cc0f3a261a0feecc5ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Chicago Wolves, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Wolves | 31c | 277.49$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc9…cda3backed Toronto Marlies | 60c | 276.15$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Chicago Wolves | 40c | 176.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Marlies | 74c | 154.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Chicago Wolves | 26c | 137.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Toronto Marlies | 65c | 104.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Chicago Wolves | 56c | 96.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Toronto Marlies | 77c | 94.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Chicago Wolves | 31c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Toronto Marlies | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago Wolves | 30c | 79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Toronto Marlies | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Chicago Wolves | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 173 | 63%109 W · 64 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Chicago Wolves | 45c | 55.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Toronto Marlies | 55c | 53.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Toronto Marlies | 72c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Marlies | 73c | 44.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Toronto Marlies | 70c | 41.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Toronto Marlies | 61c | 41.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Chicago Wolves | 32c | 37.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Toronto Marlies | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Chicago Wolves | 45c | 26.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.