Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304c2d6d7d6b66aa7f3de3310cedb70a418505b74a6fda929eb2a8762bc531f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,991 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 282.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 280.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 223.16$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 28c | 170.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 27c | 153.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 25c | 118.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 116.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 95.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 83.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 82.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 28c | 82.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 36c | 82.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 74c | 77.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 15c | 76.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…9865backed Yes | 29c | 69.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 67.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…82ebbacked Yes | 32c | 62.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 60.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 59.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 30c | 51.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 48.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 72c | 46.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…6276backed Yes | 31c | 45.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 37.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cc…102abacked Yes | 34c | 37.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 37c | 34.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 33.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 31.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849d…29ecbacked No | 79c | 27.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed No | 73c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 71c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.