Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4cb0f0c1248de8f1adca29b67686a308b8fc0eb55f7a5f80e49e49e27270e60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,869 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed No | 1c | 2,751$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 822.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 7c | 557$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 320.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 56c | 308.76$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.86 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 40c | 252.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 220.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 210.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.81 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 61c | 193.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 45c | 179.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 62c | 156.19$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 72c | 141.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed No | 72c | 127.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…4558backed Yes | 15c | 110.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 59c | 110.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 19c | 97.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 37c | 96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 21c | 87.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 17c | 85.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 16c | 84.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 73.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 46c | 68.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 17c | 67.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 63.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 56.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 55.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 44c | 53.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 46.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 39.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 80c | 37.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +225.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 36.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 43c | 35.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 30c | 34.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f60…3a69backed No | 68c | 31.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…7864backed Yes | 37c | 28.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…bf73backed No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 22.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 80c | 15.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.