Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304c495231ad08d6ffb350cc0f802077e9c2451db1b4866c6676f77d4111132a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Minaur, Bonzi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Minaur | 55c | 1,082$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.77 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…b20cbacked Minaur | 55c | 563.67$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.65 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Bonzi | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Bonzi | 49c | 409.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Bonzi | 33c | 392.68$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Minaur | 55c | 291.45$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.87 | 309 | 48.9%151 W · 158 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Bonzi | 45c | 277$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Minaur | 49c | 271.71$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Bonzi | 48c | 223.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Minaur | 52c | 221.92$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b14…3ca3backed Bonzi | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 494 | 47.2%233 W · 261 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Minaur | 79c | 160.61$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Minaur | 48c | 158$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Bonzi | 50c | 145.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 659 | 42.2%278 W · 381 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Bonzi | 46c | 133.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Minaur | 51c | 109.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Minaur | 55c | 102$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Bonzi | 46c | 99.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Bonzi | 43c | 84.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Bonzi | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Bonzi | 45c | 67.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Minaur | 54c | 63.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 222 | 55.4%123 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Bonzi | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Minaur | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Minaur | 54c | 36.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Minaur | 54c | 23.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bonzi | 45c | 23.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Minaur | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 190 | 64.7%123 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Minaur | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…58d5backed Minaur | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5)this page
- Benjamin Bonzi vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Bonzi vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de MinaurAlex de Minaur won
- Set 1 Winner: Bonzi vs MinaurMinaur won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.