Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x305092ad3d8d41bb031c7aaeac523ff47feed0c2e4fc4f92940fdaf732d54238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 40c | 801.5$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.71 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 428.1$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 21c | 383.48$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 57c | 360$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 323.13$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 63c | 293.55$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.82 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…f1b3backed Yes | 61c | 169.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 48c | 158.58$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 51c | 124.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 12c | 122.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 106.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 61c | 99.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 55c | 97.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 59c | 97.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 56c | 95.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 53c | 90.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 85.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 82.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 81.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 56c | 74.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 31c | 67.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 57c | 66.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 62.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 32c | 60.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 58.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 52c | 48.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed Yes | 40c | 48.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 49c | 47.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 47.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 48c | 47.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 34c | 46.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 65c | 45.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 63c | 44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 39.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d8a1backed No | 66c | 39.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 45c | 33.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 30.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 66c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 45c | 29.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 44c | 28.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 56c | 28.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 50c | 28.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed Yes | 55c | 26.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 58c | 25.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…8384backed Yes | 50c | 24.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 48c | 23.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…527ebacked No | 57c | 22.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 21.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 53c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 66c | 19.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.