Other European Leagues · resolved market
CD Tondela vs. CD Nacional: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30518f6388ff1ed315d6ce7269a5df225bcc56f87dfe2b201ed079545df4962d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 56c | 3,482$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.78 | 132 | 44.7%59 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Over | 49c | 3,439$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.22 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af4…183cbacked Under | 51c | 3,338$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 2,774$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.1 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 2,665$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.83 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 1,484$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.91 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 1,189$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.69 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 48c | 1,042$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.09 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 50c | 974.66$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.78 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 31c | 951.37$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.58 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 50c | 485$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 396.43$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.75 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 75c | 252.54$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.41 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2527…f09cbacked Under | 60c | 249.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 61c | 162$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 145.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 55c | 125.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 97.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 53c | 93.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 82.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 74c | 79.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 184 | 50.5%93 W · 91 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 33c | 72.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3681backed Over | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 73c | 58.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 57.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Under | 26c | 47.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 35c | 30.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 65c | 29.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 51c | 24.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 74c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Tondela vs. CD Nacional: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Tondela vs. CD Nacional: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Tondela vs. CD Nacional: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Tondela vs. CD Nacional: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Tondela vs. CD Nacional: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.