CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs ARCRED - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x305754278d9fefccc903a6fa4545d764785be15d4417b3548132b15c94451c4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FORZE Reloadof FORZE Reload, ARCRED
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ARCRED | 51c | 1,214$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.28 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…68b3backed ARCRED | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed FORZE Reload | 41c | 344.11$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.97 | 339 | 49%166 W · 173 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7159…7cfcbacked FORZE Reload | 59c | 302.12$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked ARCRED | 37c | 221.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed FORZE Reload | 48c | 205.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.05 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked ARCRED | 11c | 193$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed ARCRED | 26c | 150.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 211 | 39.3%83 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed FORZE Reload | 52c | 131$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c6…4a55backed FORZE Reload | 43c | 115$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…36eebacked FORZE Reload | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked ARCRED | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 286 | 44.1%126 W · 160 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa6…f3b0backed FORZE Reload | 53c | 61.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 136 | 75%102 W · 34 L | +22.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed FORZE Reload | 78c | 41.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed ARCRED | 52c | 40.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked ARCRED | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…6220backed ARCRED | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c46…6a2abacked FORZE Reload | 72c | 35.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed ARCRED | 53c | 32.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 198 | 43.9%87 W · 111 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ARCRED | 40c | 29.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ed…c7d5backed ARCRED | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs ARCRED - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs ARCRED (BO3)FORZE Reload won
- Counter-Strike: FORZE Reload vs ARCRED - Map 1 WinnerFORZE Reload won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.